Indonesia: Indonesia Energy Authority issue the energy development plan for 2013-2023.
Indonesia's economy is in a strong position having achieved a GDP grew rate of 6.8% in 2014 with grew 4.7% in 2015.
This robust growth is spurred by a population of 248 million(including an emerging middle class of 74 million) which is undergoing an unprecedented degree of urbanization and industrialization.
This growth should see Indonesia's demand for electricity increase at around 7.4% p.a for the foreseeable future. This should translate into growth in electricity demand from an estimated 153 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2011 to 223 TWh by 2016.
Indonesia's generation capacity is in turn forecast to increase from 184 TWh in 2012 (from an installed capacity of around 40GW) to 248 TWh by 2016.
These projections indicate a surplus in generating capacity of up to 25TWh by 2016, However, delays in capacity development (including Independent Power Producer(IPP) projects) have meant that Indonesia is actually struggling to provide electricity for its current needs. This under supply, compounded by Indonesia's geographic complexity, means that Indonesia has, at 74.4% in 2012, one of the lowest electrification ratios in the region. There are around 16.8 million households, or 62 million people, who currently have no access to public electricity.
Electricity prices paid by end-users are regulated by the Gol under Presidential Decree No.8/2011. There are 37 tariff classes organised into six ground: social, household, business, industry, government and special services. The average selling price was US7.1 cents per kWh while the cost of production of production was US10.5 cents. The shortfall is funded through a Government subsidy current running at US$ 9.5 billion p.a.
The supply of electricity at an affordable cost to the Government is therefore emerging as a potential constraint on Indonesia's long-term growth and development ambitions. Consequently, the Government has banned the use of expensive diesel fuel for new power plants and is actively promoting private sector investment in alternative feed stocks to reach its power generation targets. The Government also has plans to progressively increase electricity prices by a total of 15%.
Currently, the Government has some ongoing and Program in several areas for Phase I demand:
- SUMATERA, 8 Projects, total 1,411MW;
- JAWA-BALI, 10 Projects, total 7,490MW;
- KALIMANTAN, 5 Projects, total 625MW;
- SULAWESI, 4 Projects, total 220MW;
- NUSA TENGGARA, 4 Projects, total 117MW;
- MALUKU, 2 Projects, total 44MW;
- PAPUA, 1 Project, 20MW;
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